traffic

Maryland officials say recovery in traffic at the state's existing toll facilities will be very slow and longer-term growth prospects must be revised downwards too. They say increasing costs dominated by debt service expense will likely call for major hikes in tolls - from about $2.60 now to $3.60 in 2012 and to $4.50 in 2014 (average statewide toll on existing facilities).

407ETR in Toronto the world's first all-electronic tollroad reports revenues of C$560m in calender 2009 a 2.5% increase on 2008's $546.5m. At C$1=US$0.931 2009 revenue is US$521.4m. (All further $#s are C$s)

Traffic dropped 2.6% to 303.5k/day from 2008's 311.7k/day, average workday trips from 377.9k to 367.3k. But average trip distance was up slightly and vehicle-kms traveled were 2,214.8m down 1.7% on the 2,252.7m of 2008.

New Jersey Turnpike Authority is trying to slim its costs a little - in line with lower traffic. Traffic in the first ten months of the year is down 4.2% on the Turnpike and down 3.0% on the Parkway. The declines are attributed to the weak economy plus unusually wet weather in the summer - seen to depress trips to the NJ coast.  

The apparent recovery in traffic in the late summer and fall may be weakening with freight and trucking looking especially shaky in the most recent data. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) combined transportation services index (TSI)  - a seasonally adjusted monthly series combining all kinds of transportation - looked to be recovering June, July and August going up a cumulative 2.7% in those three months.

All around the country reporters are tapping out reports that toll agencies (and other highway operators) are "bracing" for a surge of holiday traffic. This is a melodramatic way of saying that the tollers are preparing for extra traffic.

But where's the news?

Leading concessionaire Macquarie report that their weighted average of traffic worldwide was up 1.6% in the last quarter, July-September, an improvement on the low point early this year. Greatest traffic strength was on the APRR motorway network in central France, up 3.4% over last year, and Westlink Sydney up 5.7%. The American pikes were the poor performers in traffic with the exception of Chicago Skyway.

September traffic at the US-Canadian toll crossings continued to be weak at 2,947k this year v 3169k in 2008-09  - a 7% drop - and 3473k in 2007-09. This September was down 16.7% on the 3537k of 2006-09.  The high value, high toll trucks are down more than cars this September being 10.3% fewer at 565k v 630k last September. Cars are off 6.2% at 2364k v 2520k last Sept.

Traffic on Canada's big tollroad 407ETR is down 3.8% the first half of this year (2009H1) versus first half of 2008 (2008H1) but a slightly larger increase in toll rates (4.7%) has ensured that revenues are holding. Revenues in 2009H1 were running at an annual $469m (C$524m @$C=90c) based on 292.1k trips/day versus 303.8k in 2008H1, the 3.8% decline. The revenue in 2008H1 was $468m (C$520.2m.)

February through April gave some signs of a possible bottom to the decline in traffic at the US-Canadian border toll facilities but June numbers were another heavy downer after a bad May with an 18% decline.

Traffic in June 2009 at ten reporting toll crossings was 2.59m v 3.11m June 2008, a decline of 17%.

Statisticians at the Federal Highways' Policy Information office say the latest data from 4,000 traffic counters around the country show continuing decline in traffic this year but at a lesser rate than the decline of last year.  Their 12 month moving average shows declines of around  a tenth of a percent (one thousandth) per month the past several months - about a third of the average rate of fall last year.

US road traffic continued to decline in February and March but at a slower rate than through most of last year, according to FHWA data compiled from 4,000 count stations around the country.

A Macquarie report to the Australian stock exchange shows traffic in the first quarter of 2009 continuing to decline quite seriously as compared to the previous corresponding period (pcp), 2008Q1. A crude unweighted average of their nine tollers suggests an average decline of 6% 2009Q1/2008Q1.

The group attribute the declines to the global slowdown in economic activity.

Canada-US tolled border crossings saw traffic of 2.69m in March 2009 down 9.8% on the 2.99m of 2008Mar. February was down 12.4%, January 16.2%, Dec 11.0%, November 15.4%, October 11.3%, September 8.7%, August 4.0%... The 9.8% is therefore a slightly lesser decline month-on-same-month a year back than we've seen since September 2008, but certainly no sign of recovery. 

Taro, a blogger from Tokyo highlights the unintended consequences of political pandering on toll rates. Taro normally pays about Y12,000 ($120) in tolls to get his favorite weekend/holiday destination on the island of Shikoko and the 800km (500 miles) is normally about an 11 hour drive.

US vehicle miles traveled in January were 222.4b, a drop of 3.1% in the raw numbers on a year ago. In what appears to be a seasonally adjusted series - why can't FHWA label their tables? - traffic is down 0.24% for the month (2.9%pa) 2009Jan/2008Dec going from a 12 month moving average of 2923b 2008Dec to 2916b 2009Jan.

Rhode Island Turnpike and Bridge Authority (RITBA) is seeking qualifications from traffic and revenue consultants for an important set of investment grade studies. RITBA operates the tolled Newport/Pell Bridge and maintains the Mount Hope Bridge, both major suspension spans.

There are only scattered reports of traffic on US tollroads so far this calender year but none we've come across are encouraging.

On the West Virginia Turnpike overall traffic in the first two months is down 9% on the same period last year. Truck traffic which generates the most revenue is down 16%.

December estimates by FHWA of traffic  throughout the US in December 2008 (2008-12) show a decline of 1.6% in vmt on 2007-12, the smallest drop in the previous corresponding period (pcp) in eight months. Urban interstate traffic was level on pcp, while rural interstate traffic was 1.6% lower.

US-Canadian toll crossing traffic was 16.2% lower in January than the previous corresponding period (pcp) or Jan 2008 - 2.31m vs 2.76m. This follows December numbers 11% down. Truck traffic, the highest yielding category, is down the most - 443k trucks Jan 09 vs 636k Jan 08, 30.4% down. 

407ETR the privately operated Toronto Ontario tollroad reports 2008 traffic about level with 2007 and revenue up 5.3% to $437m (C$547m @C$=80c). The December quarter saw traffic down - 3.4% as measured by vehicle-km traveled vs 2007Q4, 1.5% down by total trips, 1.9% down by average workday trips.