US traffic still in decline, but decline slower

Statisticians at the Federal Highways' Policy Information office say the latest data from 4,000 traffic counters around the country show continuing decline in traffic this year but at a lesser rate than the decline of last year.  Their 12 month moving average shows declines of around  a tenth of a percent (one thousandth) per month the past several months - about a third of the average rate of fall last year.

The tenth of a percent drop per month is consistent with March 2009 being down 1.2% on March 2008.

The moving average in March was 2914b v 2926b in Dec 2008, a 0.4% drop. 2008 as a whole saw a fall from 3030 to 2926, a 3.4% drop.  Traffic peaked in November 2007 at 3038b according to this series and is now (March data) 4.1% down on the peak.

The March/March data show disparate regional trends the decline being marked in the western states (down 3.2%) and in the South Atlantic (down 3.4%) while the northeast is up 0.5%, midwest up 0.3%, Texas and other south Gulf states up 0.3%.

By type of road rural interstates are hardest hit being down 3.8%, urban interstates the least at -0.7%, other road types having declines between those values.

Border traffic US-Canada very weak

Public Border Operators Association report very weak May numbers at the US-Canadian toll crossings 2.75m this May v 3.39m in May of 2008, an 18% drop. One of their members Seaway Int Bridge didn't report so correcting for that with a guess of 215k the overall decline was 2.96m v 3.39m - 13%. (How one laggard can mess the numbers!)

Ambassador Bridge the major trucking route midwest-Canada reports 538.8k this May v 650.3k last May, down 17%. In the same Michigan-Ontario market Blue Water Bridge is down from 449k to 390k, 13% and the Detroit Windsor Tunnel has gone from 22k to 363k, about 14% off.  That's heavily a reflection of devastated automobile manufacturing.

Giving peace a chance

The Niagara/Buffalo area crossings are not down as sharply the Peace Bridge being 514k vs 548k May last year - 6% off.  Rainbow Bridge the tourist crossing is down a similar 6%. Lewiston-Queenston nearby, more a trucking route, is down rather more going from 339k to 295k, nearly 13% off.

Sault Ste Marie is 19% off and Ogdensburg Br 12%.

Fitch sanguine

Fitch in a  report on US toll roads in the recession say they expect continued decline in US toll traffic through 2008 but a smaller percentage decxline than 2008, no growth in 2010, and limited growth beginning in 2011.

TOLLROADSnews 2009-06-11