Seattle area plan focuses on tolling alternatives including all expressways & arterials to toll

Seattle metro area governments are choosing a longrange plan from a set of alternatives all of which involve more tolls. Analysis of costs and benefits makes tolling of all expressways and arterials look like a good choice. But that choice won't be formally made until May 2010 (contrary to our initial, incorrect posting last week - editor)

Five alternatives to an existing "baseline" plan have varying degrees of tolling in an area of the country which only a couple of years ago had no tolls at all. Tolls now apply at the Tacoma Narrows Bridge, the major fixed crossing to the Kitsap peninsula, on HOT lanes on SR167, and they are scheduled to go into effect on the SR520 Floating Bridge next year.

All the alternatives being looked at as part of a fullblown environmental impact process (DEIS) continue to extend the role of tolls - by varying degrees:

Alt-1 emphasizing efficiency within the existing system, converts all HOV lanes to HOT (High Occupancy free, others Tolled) mostly 2x1 lane, with 2-lane each direction HOT roadways on I-405 (the easterly north-south spinal expressway)

Alt-2 has more road and transit expansion based on three new highways SR167ext, SR509ext, Cross-Base highway, and development of major 2x2-lane tolled HOT roadway network - mostly tax funding, tolls pitched to  manage traffic on the HOT network only

Alt-3 corridor segment based tolling of expressways the tolls pitched to fund major improvements in that specific corridor segment as well as to cover operations and to manage traffic, allowing I-5 rebuild, SR167ext, SR509ext, Cross-Base Hwy, light rail net and rapid bus - the biggest enhancement of capacity

Alt-4 tolling of the full existing expressway network to manage traffic and funding several new expressway projects and transit

Alt-5 complete expressway/arterial tolling, modest highway expansion work, heaviest expansion of bus and rail transit, state gas taxes hardly needed thanks to high toll revenues

Analysis of the different alternatives shows, in general, the more the reliance on tolling the greater the net benefits.

Alt-5 with complete expressway/arterial tolling produces the greatest travel time savings ($3.56b v av $2.77b for the others), the greatest reliability benefits ($1.290m v av $710m), the greatest economic benefits, the largest reductions in emissions and major accident cost savings compared to the others.

It has similar capital cost to the others except Alt-2 which by doing the full HOT network as well as other highway expansion is the most expensive. Alt-5 has the highest operating costs ($1010m) vs average of others ($343m).

Alt-5 by tolling virtually all road travel has by far the highest 2040 annual revenue ($7.01b) vs Alt-1 $180m, Alt-2 $267m, Alt-3 $2940m, and Alt-4 $3660m.

By comparison with the extensive tolling alternatives (Alts 3, 4, 5) both of the HOT networks look rather feeble as revenue raisers, and they don't come out very well in comparison of other aspects.

The report monetizes many of the benefits and costs annualized in 2008$s for 2040. We've extracted the main items in the table nearby titled "Benefits and costs of different 2040 plans".

We've done the additions in lines 15, 16, 17, but there looks to be some double-counting here.  Revenues embody a lot of the direct benefits motorists are getting.  But crudely adding PSRC's monetized benefits and costs or the revenues and operating plus annualized capital costs, Alt 5 is the clear winner in the report's listing of benefits and costs (line 15) and certainly in ret revenue (line 16).

Excluding revenues completely (line 17) the three toll heavy alternatives (Alts 3, 4, 5) are pretty similar but well ahead of the the toll-light and HOT lanes-dependent alternatives (Alts 1, 2).

HOT lanes have the cost of direct connection ramps or the weave-over through regular lanes via slip ramps while collecting tolls from only a portion of the traffic. They are an improvement on HOV lanes but don't compare with the benefits of full tolling and management of all traffic by variable toll rates.

Decorlasouzing into full tolling

Patrick DeCorla-Souza manager of tolling and pricing programs at FHWA has proposed a combination of pricing, shoulder lane use in peak hours, restriping, and small additions to pavement that involves tolling all lanes under the acronym FEE (Flexible Efficient Express) lanes in the March/April issue of Public Roads magazine. DeCorla-Souza presents options for going from single HOT lanes to twin HOT lanes, and then to all lanes tolled.

Apart from their modest revenue potential single HOT lanes have a problem that their top speed will be set by the slowest vehicle since there is no overtaking, limiting their capacity to 75% or 80% of each lane in a multi-lane roadway (1600 veh/hr v 2100). This logically drives a search for pavement real estate to go to 2 lanes each direction.

HOT lanes also have a safety problem of highspeed traffic traveling close by slow or stopped traffic in general purpose lanes (GPL).  There's a concern about frustrated GPL drivers darting into the HOT lane for a distance, then forcing their way back into the GPL.

Alt-2 in the Seattle plan represents the drive to improve on single HOT lanes, but in the Seattle alternatives figuring it comes at a high price in capital cost and provides a relatively small payoff.

DeCorla-Souza argues in Public Roads magazine that expanded and more heavily subsidized bus and van use of dual HOT lanes should progressively open the way to all-toll FEE lanes. The improved bus transit and initial maintenance of general purpose lanes improving flows in both will, he argues, help address "equity" issues raised against tolling formerly general purpose lanes.

Alt-5 scores big in benefit/cost ratio because it works with only about 2850 odd lane-miles of expressway, the same as the single lane HOT Alt-1  whereas Alt-2 the 2-lane HOT, Alt-3 corridor segment tolling, Alt-4 all expressway tolling require 6% to 10% more lane-miles than Alts 1 and 5.

Average daily vehicle trips grow by about 40% in the baseline plan and in Alt-1 the single HOT lane alternative. Alt-2 the twin HOT lanes heavy plan sees trips growing the most 42%, whereas the toll all expressways and arterials (Alt-5) sees the lowest growth - 37%.

Vehicle-miles are affected more than trip numbers, meaning a major effect of tolls is in encouraging shorter trips. Vehicle-miles go down 8% in Alt-5 compared to the baseline whereas the HOT lanes plans see increases - Alt 1 a 4% growth and Alt-2 8%.

Congestion should be seriously reduced compared to the baseline plan. Both HOT alternatives reduce expressway hours of delay by 9%, but corridor tolling (Alt-3) reduces it 56%, full expressway tolling (Alt-4) by 58% . Alt-5, tolling of arterials as well as expressways reduces delays 73%.

Overall delay reduction is less spectacular because the arterials are more difficult to get to flow freely. The HOT-heavy alternatives taking into account arterial as well as expressway travel produce overall delay reduction of 6%, compared to 19% and 15% for the expressway tolling and 28% for arterials as well as expressways.

Mode shares

Tolling looks quite "green," especially in reducing single occupant work trips from 75% now to: 68%, 70%, 69%, 68% and 65%, Alts 1 through 5.

Non-work trips see a lot of family travel with two persons or more in a car, technically carpooling at HOV2, but we've just classed those as car trips.

Non-work trips are also inherently more difficult to drive to transit, walking and biking, but tolls have some effect. Full tolling seems to reduce car use for non-work trips from about 87% to about 85% in most of the toll scenarios and to 83% in Alt-5.

Despite major dollar investments in rail, bus remains the dominant transit mode with over 700k trips/day v 210k for rail.

Planning assumptions of about 40% growth in population and daily trips

Planning is based on projected population growth in the Seattle area from 3.5m now to 5.0m around 2040 and a growth in employment from 2.0m now to about 3.1m in 2040. 2006-2040 the increases are 42% in population and 60% in assumed employment. The housing stock is supposed to go up 56% to 2.3m from 1.48m.

Daily trips - the basis for transport planning - are projected to grow approximately with population from 13.7m in 2006 to about 19.1m in 2040, 1.40x. Vehicle trips would grow a tad less from 8.7m to 12m or 1.38x.

The Seattle metro area is the first in America to formally present longrange transport plans based heavily on tolling. Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) represents local governments in the area.

Congestion mitigation and improved mobility is given top priority in planning objectives.

Washington state has already done a first by approving tolls on a presently free bridge, the State Route SR520 floating bridge in order to manage traffic and generate a revenue stream for a replacement bridge.

Support

Pricing are also supported by state officials. The Seattle papers  quote state Treasurer James McIntire as saying: "The notion that we're going to be able to continue to finance projects with gas taxes just doesn't survive in today's economy."

He cites resistance to increasing the gasoline tax plus a steady reduction in use of petroleum based fuels. McIntire says every new road project will need to be toll financed to be built.

Even if fuel tax funds were not to decline they are insufficient to prevent the Seattle area road network from seeing delays several-fold present levels, according to various simulations.

see http://www.psrc.org

TERMINOLOGY: PSRC use the term "freeway" even when tolled, which seems to us ridiculous. Many people take the free in freeway to mean they're free of a direct charge for use, untolled.  The original notion of freeways was that they were free flowing, but of course the big problem is that a lot of the time they aren't. Overlaying this the term "freeway" is a pejorative, embodying ugliness, dysfunction, and overbearing planners. The old term "freeway" should be retired, it carries so much baggage.

We use the terms "expressway" which in any case is common parlance in the south, northeast and midwest of the US to describe interstate style fully divided, grade separated and access controlled roadways, whether tolled or tax supported.

TOLLROADSnews 2009-06-05